Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / ReportDeter and Divide: Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Jan 11, 2024Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO’s resolve.
Analysis / ReportReactions from the Next Generation: “The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age”ByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Suzanne Claeys, Joseph Rodgers, Lachlan Mackenzie and Jess LinkPublished Jul 12, 2023As a follow-on to The Fragile Balance of Terror, the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies invited eight early- and mid-career experts to offer their reflections on the volume’s chapters and conclusions.
Analysis / ReportAlternative Nuclear Futures: Capability and Credibility Challenges for U.S. Extended Nuclear DeterrenceByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Joseph Rodgers and Reja YounisPublished May 9, 2023The U.S. extended deterrence could change drastically in the next decade due to increasing nuclear threats from countries such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The credibility of U.S. security guarantees for its allies is at risk, and the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues used an “alternative futures” approach to explore how this mission might be affected. In all scenarios explored, the United States faces a credibility problem that will require a new approach to consulting, planning, training, and operating with allies.
Analysis / ReportIrreversibility in Nuclear DisarmamentByHeather Williams, Jess Link and Joseph RodgersPublished Feb 28, 2023The Project on Nuclear Issues commissioned a series of think pieces to explore potential approaches and challenges to IND.
Analysis / ReportCSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear DialoguesByRebecca HersmanPublished Apr 1, 2022Consensus statement from Track 2 participants from the CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues with the US, UK, and France.
Analysis / ReportIntegrated Arms Control in an Era of Strategic CompetitionByRebecca Hersman, Suzanne Claeys and Heather WilliamsPublished Jan 25, 2022Can contemporary arms control keep pace with the rapid rate of change in both geopolitics and technology? This study examines the implication and prospects for the future of arms control in a highly competitive security environment in which challenges from advanced technologies and diminished state control over processes of verification become increasingly prominent features, even as the scope and modalities of arms control grow more complex and multifaceted.
Analysis / ReportInfluence and Escalation: Implications of Russian and Chinese Influence Operations for Crisis ManagementByRebecca Hersman, Eric Brewer, Maxwell Simon and Lindsey SheppardPublished Nov 17, 2021As influence operations increasingly engage strategic-level interests, capabilities, and risks—U.S. infrastructure, institutions, elites, or those of our close allies—existing assumptions about their escalatory potential may not prove sound.
Analysis / ReportThe Adversary Gets a VoteByRebecca Hersman and Reja YounisPublished Oct 29, 2021As the Department of Defense (DoD) further develops integrated deterrence as its overarching strategic concept, it will become increasingly important to appreciate the stability risks and benefits associated with emerging intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, from both an arms-race and crisis-management perspective.
Analysis / ReportIran’s Evolving Nuclear Program and Implications for U.S. PolicyByEric BrewerPublished Oct 15, 2021Iran’s nuclear program isn’t what it used to be. Read why that matters for efforts to salvage the JCPOA and any “Plan B” from Deputy Director Eric Brewer.